English Premier League prediction contest, because it is fun, but also because it gives us some more data to work with in the ongoing discussion of skill in forecasts. (And yes, I have a post on the octopus in the works;-)
To play you simply need to add a comment to this post with your predicted end of season rankings -- 1 to 20 -- for the EPL. The benchmark for skill will be the transfer payments made for each team as shown in the figure above -- this is our naive forecast.
The scoring for the contest will be a skill score based on the mean squared error of your prediction as compared to the naive prediction. There will also be bonus points awarded for correctly identifying Champions League and Europa League teams as well as the three relegated teams. The prize for the most skillful prediction will be a signed copy of The Climate Fix.
The season has already started , so you have some data to work with. I'll consider any forecasts made before the first game kicks off on Saturday, September 11, which means that about 10% of the season will already be in the books.