I have discussed the 2006-2010 hurricane damage forecast that was issued by Risk Management Solutions, a leading catastrophe modeling firm. As we approach the end of the 2010 hurricane season we are close to being able to offer a definitive evaluation of that forecast. You can see where things stand as of today in the graph above. (All data is from the ICAT Damage Estimator, total damages shown.)
I will have a series of posts on the RMS forecast and its significance closer to the end of November. The forecast and its evaluation provide some very important lessons for catastrophe risk management, for the role of cat modeling firms in financial services and for the science of extreme events. Meantime, those interested in a bit more background might have a look at this paper:
Pielke, Jr., R.A., 2009. United States hurricane landfalls and damages: Can one-to five-year predictions beat climatology?, Environmental Hazards, Vol. 8, pp. 187-200.