Above is the current
National Hurricane Center forecast cone for Earl. Below is a screenshot from the
ICAT Damage Estimator, showing all historical storm tracks that passed within 100 miles of Earl's current location (click for a larger view).
I have highlighted one track that looks fairly analogous - Edna in 1954. Edna caused $3.7 billion in normalized damage. As you can see from the histogram storms near Earl's present location can cause little or much damage. Storm 7 in 1944, which also had a similar track, caused $10 billion in normalized damage.
