The best example of this in the climate domain is the incessant hectoring of Andy Revkin, a prominent reporter who covers environment at the New York Times, by Joe Romm, a political activist and blogger at the Center for American Progress, who spews forth all sorts of angry, half-thought-through diatribes when Revkin does not celebrate Joe or his political views. The point, Joe's ego aside, is to increase political pressure on Revkin to take certain actions and reflect certain perspectives.
Consider Romm's marching orders to the media not to talk with me or Michael Shellenberger and Ted Nordhaus at The Breakthrough Institute. Of course, Joe feels no need to follow his own orders, citing me, Michael and ted dozens upon dozens of times. The point of course is simple -- Joe wants to try to control the focus of attention and have a forum to himself to advocate. Pressuring the media not to cover people who disagree allows him to sidestep the substantive issues that he is generally very weak on, and instead shape debate by bluster and intimidation. Amazingly, some reporters actually follow Joe's directives. Most others do not. But the intense lobbying makes reporters no different than politicians subject to pressure campaigns. And for journalists, like politicians -- some give in to the pressure, others show leadership.
Yesterday, Andy Revkin pushed back hard to this sort of pressure on his blog when an activist took him to task for mentioning Steve McIntyre. Here is what Revkin said:
So Mr. McIntyre is a sufficiently substantive presence for the scientists at http://www.Realclimate.org to refute, and for Thomas Crowley to challenge, and for the National Academies to assess ( http://www.nytimes.com... ).
But if I write a blog post about his decision not to pursue publication of his own temperature time series, I'm illegitimate or something. You, like some others here, seem to want journalists to ape activist bloggers whose response to opposing voices -- however legit or suspect -- is to place hands over ears and say, "I can't hear you, I can't hear you... "
32 comments:
Interesting. Revkin has been an activist for years. Now he's getting barked at because he's not giving "us" what "we've" come to expect from him. The reaction to Revkin's recent writing is not a general anger at journalists - it's disappointment from those used to getting their prejudices fortified in Revkin's columns are now being asked to think - a little.
Revkin created the beast - I can't feel sorry for him. All those "it's worse than we thought" stories, and all those forlorn polar bears on melting ice floe photos are coming back to haunt him.
Media coverage in climate is, and has for years, been like activist bloggers? That is the chosen place of traditional coverage.
Yes, it does it matter?
Revkin's latest piece that frames the Briffa Yamal chron debate is interesting in that it exactly demonstrates the unfortunate and perhaps unavoidable co-mingling of science and advocacy - from whatever viewpoint.
What is disconcerting is the rapid development of what appears to be a Weimar moment - where if extremists succeed they will curtail debate.
In other news. Romm has now "qualified" the bet he offered on temperature rise in the next decade.
http://climateprogress.org/2009/09/22/new-york-times-andrew-revkin-suckered-by-deniers-to-push-global-cooling-myt/
Only problem is he added the qualification after he already published the bet. Here's the latest flavor:
It now reads: “I will be happy to bet anyone [using the Nate Silver rule] that the 2010s will be the hottest decade in the temperature record, more than 0.15°C hotter than the hottest decade so far using the NASA GISS dataset. ”
“Sorry, I am adopting the Nate Silver rule and keep my bets to folks who are “a regular (at least once weekly) contributor to a political, economics or science blog with an Alexa traffic global ranking of 50,000 or lower. The reason for the latter requirement is because I want to be able to shame/humiliate you if you back out of the challenge or refuse to pay, as I’d assume you’d do the same with me.” I will, however, settle for a ranking of 100,000 or lower.”
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/climateprogress.org
Global Alexa Traffic Rank 60,798
Dr. Pielke sez:
“Pressuring the media not to cover people who disagree allows him [Joe Romm] to sidestep the substantive issues that he is generally very weak on”
Question:
Does Joe take his marching orders from the Columbia Journalism Review?
Quoting Slate.com, commenting on this CJR essay:
“our CJR [Columbia Journalism Review] author appears to believe that the green consensus, the anthropogenic theory of global warming, has some special need to be protected from doubters and dissenters, and that reporters who don't do their job to insulate it are not being ‘helpful.’ When faced with dissent from the sacrosanct green consensus, the author, as we'll see, argues that the ‘helpful’ reporter must always show the dissenters are wrong if they are to be given any attention at all”
Click here for my analysis.
Yes, the story of Joe Romm's bet offer gives an interesting insight into this man's honesty and integrity. And perhaps worthy of its own blog entry Roger (I know how fond you are of him).
In Romm's earlier attack on Revkin (sept 22), where he ranted at Revkin for daring to point out the fact (even acknowledged by Pachauri) that temperatures have levelled out over the last few years, he wrote:
"I will be happy to bet anyone that the 2010s will be the hottest decade in the temperature record, more than 0.15°C hotter than the hottest decade so far using the NASA GISS dataset."
Recently, two people (Svempa and Les Johnson) accepted the bet. Romm then backed out of the bet, inventing extra rules. He then edited the original bet offer on his web page, without acknowledging that he had done so. Ironically Romm wrote to Svempa, " I want to be able to shame/humiliate you if you back out of the challenge " when in fact it was he himself who had backed out. Clearly the man cannot be trusted - I am amazed that anyone is prepared to take a bet with him, and I certainly wouldn't.
See also the discussion at Lucia's Blackboard.
Greg Mankiw recently published a list of propositions that are overwhelming supported by professional economists. See http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/02/news-flash-economists-agree.html . I wonder whether anyone would suggest that opposing viewpoints should not be presented by news reporters.
1. A ceiling on rents reduces the quantity and quality of housing available. (93%)
2. Tariffs and import quotas usually reduce general economic welfare. (93%)
3. Flexible and floating exchange rates offer an effective international monetary arrangement. (90%)
4. Fiscal policy (e.g., tax cut and/or government expenditure increase) has a significant stimulative impact on a less than fully employed economy. (90%)
5. The United States should not restrict employers from outsourcing work to foreign countries. (90%)
6. The United States should eliminate agricultural subsidies. (85%)
7. Local and state governments should eliminate subsidies to professional sports franchises. (85%)
8. If the federal budget is to be balanced, it should be done over the business cycle rather than yearly. (85%)
9. The gap between Social Security funds and expenditures will become unsustainably large within the next fifty years if current policies remain unchanged. (85%)
10. Cash payments increase the welfare of recipients to a greater degree than do transfers-in-kind of equal cash value. (84%)
11. A large federal budget deficit has an adverse effect on the economy. (83%)
12. A minimum wage increases unemployment among young and unskilled workers. (79%)
13. The government should restructure the welfare system along the lines of a “negative income tax.” (79%)
14. Effluent taxes and marketable pollution permits represent a better approach to pollution control than imposition of pollution ceilings. (78%)
lkdemott,
Its also worth remembering exactly how much confidence the consensus climate scientists have in their own conclusions.
According the IPCC AR4 "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."
The IPCC further defines "very likely" to mean that "the assessed likelihood, using expert judgment" is over 90%.
So the consensus amongst climate scientists is that there a 90% to 95% chance that 50% of the observed warming is due to human greenhouse gas emissions.
That's a pretty reasonable number, reflecting a great deal of uncertainty. Skeptic that I am, if I were assigning a probability to the same statement, I'd put it between 80% and 90%.
Most of the distance between the skeptic camp and the alarmist cap lies not between the skeptics and the IPCC, but between the IPCC and the alarmists who are trying to stamp out dissent.
JasonS,
Speaking as a scientist, I assert that:
1) Some portion of the recent warming was probably caused by human activity.
2) Nobody has ever presented any evidence which convincingly quantifies what percentage of the observed warming was caused by human activity.
3) Your alleged consensus -- even within the community of government selected IPCC scientists -- is pure fiction invented by the media:
Quoting Kathryn Jean Lopez interviewing Lawrence Solomon:
“Lopez: What Denier fact could be characterized as most inconvenient for Al Gore?
Solomon: The claim that there is a consensus on climate change. This claim is based on the media’s often repeated claim that the 2000 to 2500 scientists associated with the UN’s panel endorsed the U.N.’s report. In fact, as the Secretariat of the UN panel told me, those 2500 scientists are merely reviewers of some of the hundreds of input studies that went into the mix. They endorsed nothing. There is no consensus and there never has been.”
Q) Relative to what the media report about climate change, where is there scientific consensus?
A) Scientists broadly agree that the planet has warmed over the last 100 years and that human activity has contributed to that warming.
Q) Where does the consensus break down?
A1) There is no agreement on how much (or how rapidly) the planet has warmed in the last 100 years.
Heavily massaged data from land based measuring stations say one thing.
Satellite data say another thing.
Peer reviewed science demonstrates that the two are NOT in agreement!
Rigorous inspections demonstrate that the land based measurement stations are laughably unreliable.
A2) There is no agreement on what portion of the warming was caused by human activity (see the opening quote).
Q) What scientific consensus would most surprise the average lay person?
A) The FACT is that the overwhelming majority of scientists do NOT favor regulating CO2!
Click here for an expanded version of this comment.
Interesting article on IPCC terminology
SBVOR,
Do you believe that, amongst professors of climate science at research universities, there is a consensus that the following statement is true?
"Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is LIKELY due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations."
If not, I think its fair to say that you are factually in error.
Jason,
Assuming that there is a consensus among professors of climate science (there probably is), why should we care? That is simply an example of the logical fallacy of appeal to authority. As Einstein said, it matters not how many German scientists didn't agree with him. Only one would have been sufficient to prove him wrong.
The Alarmists have been unable to prove their case. I don't care what their BELIEFS are, religious or otherwise. They simply can't produce the science necessary to make the case. Much of what they have produced is so shoddy it's incompetent. And the unscientific and unethical behavior of many of the most prominent alarmists is sufficient to give any reasonable person pause to wonder what they are trying to hide.
Jason S.,
Are you perchance referring to the conclusions of Doran and Zimmerman (2008)?
Jason S #11,
1) Your assertion is quite possible.
On a theoretical level, I might even agree that human activity could have been responsible for 50% (or more) of the observed warming.
My points are that:
A) There is NO evidence which convincingly quantifies what percentage of the observed warming was caused by human activity.
B) The overwhelming majority of IPCC scientists never signed off on any assertions made in the summary report. I think there were about 50 who did.
My next point is that every molecule of CO2 has exponentially less warming effect than the molecule which preceded it. The more CO2 we add, the less impact it has.
2) The more important question is:
Do the same professors advocate for regulating CO2? And, if so, how do they justify that position? Dr. Pielke??? ;-)
Kyoto has, by all accounts, been an abysmal and phenomenally expensive failure. There is no more glaring example of just what a failure it has been than the cost/benefit ratio.
Is there any reason to believe any future CO2 regulations will be any more cost effective (or even produce any measurable impacts, no matter what the cost)? I think not!
3) When we examine historic CO2 levels, can anybody really take seriously the assertions that we are on the precipice of some catastrophic “tipping point” (or even a point of minor concern)?
Jason S #11,
I forgot a few another points for you.
Regardless of what percentage of the observed warming was caused by human activity, the larger point is that there is nothing even remotely unusual about current temperatures or current trends!
Nor is there anything even remotely unusual about Arctic sea ice or the Greenland ice sheet or the Arctic temperature trends.
#12,
My point is simply that a consensus DOES exist. To deny this is to enter the same imaginary fairyland in which most climate policies are crafted.
#13,
I was not referring to any particular paper (Although I am aware of studies which confirm this).
#14,
I agree that translating climate knowledge to policy is, by far, the weakest link in this enterprise.
#15,
I agree that warmings like the current period have happened many times before. But, they are relatively rare.
If anthropogenic activity is NOT the largest contributor to the present warming, the timing of this particular rapid warming will prove quite a coincidence.
In my opinion, this is a very compelling argument in favor of AGW.
Jason,
Your opinion, absent evidence, is as persuasive as that of the man who is convinced that he was kidnapped by space aliens. If you have the scientific evidence, put up. Otherwise, the citation of mere opinion to support policy that compels the poor to give up their only chance for a better life presents certain questions of morality.
Jason S (#16) sez:
“I agree that warmings like the current period have happened many times before. But, they are relatively rare.
If anthropogenic activity is NOT the largest contributor to the present warming, the timing of this particular rapid warming will prove quite a coincidence.”
1) The warming at Vostok began 2,000 years ago. Did AGW cause that?
2) And yet, just like the Arctic, there remains intact a 10,000 year cooling trend at Vostok -- even with the latest warming factored in.
3) Take another look at those two 10,000 year charts (and verify the data sources here and here).
Notice that:
A) The warming cycles are pretty evenly spaced.
B) There is nothing even remotely unusual about the latest warming.
We were simply due for a warming!
Yes, human activity has probably enhanced that warming to some tiny (and beneficial) extent.
By the way, is it possible that those who have ridden the $50 BILLION gravy train to this station are more inclined to whip up hysteria over AGW?
Jason S #16 refers to a "rapid warming",
The alleged rapidity of the recent warming is a myth which has been busted by the father of our blog host (and others -- including my own charts from my previous comment).
The infamous hockey stick chart has been too thoroughly discredited to even merit a mention.
My apologies…
In comment #18, the graph in the third link did not include the linear trend line documenting the still on-going 10,000 year cooling trend at Vostok.
Stan (#17) sez:
“the citation of mere opinion to support policy that compels the poor to give up their only chance for a better life presents certain questions of morality”
Morality?
When have we EVER known the religious cult of environmental extremism to concern itself with anything as small and petty as the mere “morality” of human suffering and death?
After all, they have an entire planet to worry about.
Click here and here for a classic example demonstrating why this cult is -- willfully or otherwise -- demonstrably and quantifiably at least a full order of magnitude more evil than the Third Reich.
Re: Jason S., #16:
"I was not referring to any particular paper (Although I am aware of studies which confirm this)."
Well unless you have some specific data in mind which supports the conclusion that a "consensus" of climate science professors supports the specific statement put forth by the IPCC, then I don't see how or why you might claim anyone who does not believe your assertion is "factually in error."
Which might bring us to a followup by Andy Revkin at the end of page 6 of the comments:
"I'm trying to interest some social scientists in dissecting one of these sequences and, through that analysis, exploring the nature of blog commentary... Stay tuned."
This should be interesting. Has Dr. Pielke Jr. been dissecting any of this (with or without invitation)?
Stan,
I have no interest in persuading you. I'm sure that you have been exposed to the scientific evidence. You have chosen to take the position that you take.
I think it highly unlikely that any short term (<10 years) event is capable of dislodging you from your position.
I would never even dream of convincing SBVOR :)
I'll be content if he doesn't declare that there is no consensus. There most certainly is. Like all scientific consensus, it may be wrong.
SBVOR:
Whether or not you think that the warming that occurred between 1976 and 1998 was rapid is, I suppose, a matter of definition. Let me ask you the question in a more precise way:
If it were possible to absolutely measure the global temperature trend over every single 22 year period ending in the last one million years, what fraction of those trends would equals or exceed the trend for 1976 to 1998?
Jason #23,
1) There is no agreement on how much (or how rapidly) the planet has warmed in the last 100 years - or the last 30 years.
Heavily massaged data from land based measuring stations say one thing.
Satellite data say another thing.
Peer reviewed science demonstrates that the two are NOT in agreement!
Rigorous inspections demonstrate that the land based measurement stations are laughably unreliable.
2) Taken in isolation, both Vostok and the Greenland ice sheet show conclusively that there is NOTHING unusual about the recent rate (or amount) of warming.
3) In fact, data from the Greenland ice sheet show the warming circa 1930 was FAR more rapid than the more recent warming.
Click here to further explore the peer reviewed science which that last graph was copied from.
Oliver Sun #22,
If somebody told me that "Most skeptics have no problem getting their comments published at Real Climate", I would accuse them of being "factually in error".
I am aware of no studies (peer reviewed or otherwise) surveying skeptical RC posters to determine their attitudes. But I am perfectly comfortable combining my personal interactions with many people with my a priori understanding, and reaching a conclusion of fact.
Rather than have an argument about von Storch with you (which would end predictably and waste both of our time), let me make the argument another way, by falsifiable counter example:
I claim that amongst professors of climatology (or related disciplines focusing on climatology) who have received tenure at a major research university in the past 10 years, the number of professors disagreeing with my basic premise is ZERO.
If you can identify a ONE such professor who would DISAGREE that:
"Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is LIKELY due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations"
I will withdraw my statement.
In the absence of living, breathing, newly tenured professors who actually dispute my proposed consensus, any reference to the lack of studies actually proving their absence is just an epistemological artifice.
And yes, the comment that Revkin was replying to when he wrote that was mine. I see no reason to take back anything that I wrote in that thread, but its hard for me to imagine any dissection of my blog comments ending well.
25-Why is it necessary to add "newly tenured"? And what disciplines do you consider "related"?
Your multitude of qualifiers is silly. "Consensus" does not mean "Everyone in a certain field employed at a university that isn't an old bastard and not too fresh either is in agreement." It means "everyone is in agreement", hell I'll even settle for "everyone who is qualified to agree or disagree is in agreement" but as it stands you are just reaching for the most difficult construction you can come up with. You know for certain that if you dropped the qualifier "newly tenured" you would be swamped easily-big surprise idiot, the more specific you get the fewer individuals meet the criteria.
#26: Andrew,
The tenure process speaks directly to the presence of consensus in a particular field.
If it is impossible for individuals holding "view X" about their own field to get tenure in a major research university, then there is an overwhelming consensus against view X.
A ten year window, and a requirement that somebody be actively engaged in the field in a research university is hardly restrictive.
The fact that somebody received tenure long ago, says nothing about the consensus today.
And the consensus that I am claiming is of climate scientists. Plainly non climate scientists should be excluded.
"The fact that somebody received tenure long ago, says nothing about the consensus today."
Poppycock. They are still a researcher, an active one, and qualified to have an opinion. If it needs to be the consensus of today, then you would need to ask everyone who is qualified today. Your rules are just about excluding anyone who is old enough to make a reasoned, rather than passioned judgment.
"A ten year window...actively engaged in the field in a research university...is hardly restrictive" Balderdash. You have successfully shut out many qualified, and active, individuals. You have excluded atmospheric scientists such as John Christy and Richard Lindzen, not to mention many state climatologists who were victims of the Democrat witch hunt, such as George Taylor-Patrick Michaels, who might not entirely disagree with your statement, is also excluded by the same token, having resigned his faculty position after the Governor essentially robbed him of his right to speak as state climatologist-how are they not entitled to count in judging the unanimity of current scientific opinion? Are you saying you are only qualified to have an opinion if you got tenure recently? That's idiotic.
Look it's simple, the scientific opinions of the day include not those who happened to recently get tenure but those who are qualified, breathing, and have an opinion.
So, what do you define as a "climatologist" (very few people have actual climatology degrees)
How do you define "consensus"? Because by the true definition (unanimous ascent) the modifier "overwhelming" is redundant.
Good lord, I really can't believe that you believe this but apparently you think that consensus means the opinion of the present academic tenure committees of the universities today. That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard.
Your a slippery, sneaky, conniving cheat.
Andrew,
I see that you were conducting a scientific experiment to determine what you would have to do to convince me that you lack the intellect to carry on an intellectual conversation.
You should record that post #28 did the job.
Well played.
The only one lacking intellect here is you.
Now your a pretentious jerk, too.
Step back, photogenic polar bears, make way for dead camels. Jeffrey Gettleman at Dot Earth has seen the need to connect drought in Somalia to global warming.
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/08/even-the-camels-are-dying/
Notice the construction:
"True, droughts are cyclical, and various studies suggest that Africa has experienced parched epochs before. But many people here these days believe the extreme dryness may be evidence of climate change ..."
Not, "there is scientific evidence," but "many people believe." That's science writing at the World's Best Newspaper.
Not Whitey Bulger sez:
“That's science writing at the World's Best Newspaper.”
This hardly the first time that the Old Grey Lady has unapologetically engaged in blatant propaganda on behalf of Statists.
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