The UK has a big election coming up. Here I'll be evaluating some of the pre-election predictions after the results come in. But it turns out, that may be a futile exercise, as it appears that the results are already in. Congratulations are in order for Ed Miliband, the next PM of the United Kingdom.
Let me explain.
Back in 2000, Roger Mortimore, director of political analysis for Ipsos MORI, discovered a remarkable predictive relationship for the outcome of UK general elections.
| Elec. | Winner | FA Cup holders (year of final) | Shirt colour(s) | Correct? |
| 1997 | Lab | Manchester U. (1996) | RED | Y |
| 1992 | Con | Tottenham H. (1991) | WHITE | Y |
| 1987 | Con | Coventry City (1987) | Sky BLUE | Y |
| 1983 | Con | Manchester U. (1983) | RED | N* |
| 1979 | Con | Ipswich Town (1978) | BLUE | Y |
| O'74 | Lab | Liverpool (1974) | RED | Y |
| F'74 | Hung | Sunderland (1973) | RED and WHITE | Y |
| 1970 | Con | Chelsea (1970) | BLUE | Y |
| 1966 | Lab | Liverpool (1965) | RED | Y |
| 1964 | Lab | West Ham U. (1964) | RED ("Claret") | Y |
| 1959 | Con | Nott'm Forest (1959) | RED | N |
| 1955 | Con | Newcastle U. (1955) | Black and WHITE | Y |
| 1951 | Con | Newcastle U. (1951) | Black and WHITE | Y |
| 1950 | Lab | Wolves (1949) | YELLOW | Y |
* Would have been correct if Brighton & Hove Albion (BLUE) had not missed an open goal in the dying seconds of the FA Cup final, before losing the replay.
Mortimore explained:All you have to do to predict which of the major parties will have an overall majority in the Commons following the election is to note the shirt colours usually worn by the current holders (on election day) of the FA Cup. If their shirts are predominantly in the Conservative colours of blue or white, a Conservative victory will ensue; on the other hand if the predominant colour is red or yellow, Labour will be successful. (Black stripes are ignored.)The FA Cup holders for the 2015 general election are Arsenal (as it should be, but I digress), who wear red, and sometimes yellow. This implies a Labor victory and thus Ed Miliband as Prime Minister.
The table shows that the Tories win an election held when the FA Cup is held by a club who play in predominantly Blue or White shirts; Labour wins when the cup holders wear a shade of Red or Yellow. A hung Parliament results when the Cup holders wear both parties' colours.
Now, to those skeptics of the "Sweet FA Prediction model" (as Mortimore calls it) may point out, rightly, that any fool with a spreadsheet can mine data to identify past spurious relationships. You can probably even write academic papers on such things. The real test, you might argue, is how an alleged relationship fares in an out-of-sample prediction context.
Well, lets see what happened since Mortimore first published his model in 2000.
| Elec. | Winner | FA Cup holders (year of final) | Shirt colour(s) | Correct? |
| 2010 | Con | Chelsea (2009) | BLUE | Y |
| 2005 | Lab | Manchester U. (2004) | RED | Y |
| 2001 | Lab | Liverpool (2001) | RED | Y |
| 1997 | Lab | Manchester U. (1996) | RED | Y |
| 1992 | Con | Tottenham H. (1991) | WHITE | Y |
| 1987 | Con | Coventry City (1987) | SKY BLUE | Y |
| 1983 | Con | Manchester U. (1983) | RED | N* |
| 1979 | Con | Ipswich Town (1978) | BLUE | Y |
| O'74 | Lab | Liverpool (1974) | RED | Y |
| F'74 | Indecisive | Sunderland (1973) | RED & WHITE | Y |
| 1970 | Con | Chelsea (1970) | BLUE | Y |
| 1966 | Lab | Liverpool (1965) | RED | Y |
| 1964 | Lab | West Ham U. (1964) | RED ("Claret") | Y |
| 1959 | Con | Nott'm Forest (1959) | RED | N |
| 1955 | Con | Newcastle U. (1955) | BLACK & WHITE | Y |
| 1951 | Con | Newcastle U. (1951) | BLACK & WHITE | Y |
| 1950 | Lab | Wolves (1949) | YELLOW ("Old Gold") | Y |
Dare I say ... BOOM?
The Sweet FA Cup Prediction model has gone 3-0 since it was first introduced. That is some fine predicting and clearly validates the model. Despite this remarkable success, Mortimore remains humble: "I must reluctantly point out that the Sweet FA Prediction model© is not entirely serious." Of course, Mortimore then applied the model to the London Mayoral elections with similar success.
It turns out that the FA Cup is a veritable treasure trove of oracle-like prognostication. After the championship game in Wembley late next month, I'll provide my updated analysis of expected US hurricane damage for 2015 based on the FA Cup final score.
Don't laugh. It anticipated Superstorm Sandy.
Predicting the future turns out to be pretty easy, if you just know where to look.