Here is a speech that everyone interested in climate and energy policy should watch. Speaking before the Scottish parliament earlier this week, Rupert Soames, CEO of Aggreko -- a world leader in temporary energy supply -- delivers some straight talk to policy makers (
BBC coverage). He focuses on Great Britain, but the lessons are of broad relevance.
Have a look.
17 comments:
It has some lovely sound-bites. The bit about the Tooth Fairy especially.
You can read the full speech at aggrekos site;http://www.aggreko.com/media-centre/press-releases/speech-to-scottish-parliament.aspx
Thanks for spotting this Roger. Still the 'greens' and some politicians just don't get it, or don't want to.
OT
Lord Stern thinks starting a trade war with the US is a great idea.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/environment/article2813617.ece
So much sense. So much reality. Let us hope that the politicians in Edinburgh and London listen to Mr Soames as opposed to the pot bangers.
Cold hard reality vs fuzzy-wuzzy greenie daydreams
Love it. His list of questions to ask of anyone wanting to get on the bridge should be compulsory questions at political debates.
I wished we were in a similar situation in the United States, with politicians trying to top each other with ever more ambitious climate goals that put strains on the energy sector.
I'm sure Rupert Soames is a hard headed Scottish businessman who believes anyone connected to the government is a simple minded, airy fairy daftie.
If the goverment can't count, why aren't there examples of 20 street lights per hundred yards or five policeman for a town of 50,000 people ? If Soames and RJ Pielke can do the sums, so can the Scottish and British governments.
The targets won't be met and those who made them will be gone from office. The reason for them is encouragement of the carbon trading market and an example to other governments. The City of London will be the biggest earner from that market.
It isn't a giant conspiracy, it's an extreme example of the kind of negotiating bravado that goes on all the time.
When the lights start to go out, the people will be in the streets putting heads on spikes. It will be most amusing to watch. I just hope they don't back down on their commitments and spoil the show. ;-)
Mark B
This is Scotland, not France.
If the lights went out (and nothing remotely like that has ever happened before), there will be riots of apathy and the consumption of alcohol and drugs will take world records to new highs.
Rupert Soames is CEO of a company that supplies electricity generators. Better get yours now in case the lights go out! You couldn't make it up.
I had a feeling about his name and it turns out that he also has an aristocratic family history (Churchill's grandson), so shameless self promotion comes as standard.
His emphasis on being placated or blinded by long-term targets seems spot on. It's so easy to set 2030 targets with no plan and no willingness to ask someone to pay the cost. The longterm focus on energy security, renewables, decarbonization is the right one, but it won't just happen. The more things are expected to take care of themselves the more they eventually will, but only after being forced to by significant economic pains.
And for those who still think Peak Oil is a fantasy, there's this:
International Energy Agency Says 'Peak Oil' Began in 2006
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUS50409640120101118
DeWitt
The IEA is basically a front for the oil and gas industry (what else would it be ?). Peak oil was invented by an honest little Irish geologist called Colin Campbell, who just happens to have been a senior oil executive and even an oil company owner. It was promoted by 9/11 conspiracy theorist former LA cop Michael C Ruppert who suddenly found himself invited to speak to the Commonwealth Club having previously been a mainstream parriah.
Following simulating a break in at his own office, Ruppert (ironically) fled to Venezuala, a country with truly huge reserves of shale oil. He had been promoting cancer cures on seniors ocean cruises for a company called Pinnacle Quest, International who's board were prosecuted for criminal conspiracy.
Ruppert said, “Am I aware that some members of PQI have had criminal charges pressed against them? Absolutely! So have many dedicated patriots and whistleblowers throughout our country's history…”
http://www.madcowprod.com/MC6812004.html
Energy, and Plenty of It, for Decades to Come - NYTimes.com
"But no sooner did the demand-and-supply equation shift out of kilter than it swung back into something more palatable and familiar. Just as it seemed that the world was running on fumes, giant oil fields were discovered off the coasts of Brazil and Africa, and Canadian oil sands projects expanded so fast, they now provide North America with more oil than Saudi Arabia. In addition, the United States has increased domestic oil production for the first time in a generation.
Meanwhile, another wave of natural gas drilling has taken off in shale rock fields across the United States, and more shale gas drilling is just beginning in Europe and Asia. Add to that an increase in liquefied natural gas export terminals around the world that connected gas, which once had to be flared off, to the world market, and gas prices have plummeted.
Energy experts now predict decades of residential and commercial power at reasonable prices. Simply put, the world of energy has once again been turned upside down.
“Oil and gas will continue to be pillars for global energy supply for decades to come,” said James Burkhard, a managing director of IHS CERA, an energy consulting firm. “The competitiveness of oil and gas and the scale at which they are produced mean that there are no readily available substitutes in either one year or 20 years.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/17/business/energy-environment/17FUEL.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all
DeWitt said... 12
"for those who still think Peak Oil is a fantasy, there's this:"
"Peak Oil" is an economic term. It is the price at which substitute goods become attractive.
I.E.
A natural gas powered automobile doesn't cost any more to manufacture then a gasoline powered automobile.
The natural gas powered vehicle will have a smaller truck space and about 1/2 the range of it's gasoline cousin.
Is it worth an additional $1/gallon in fuel costs for the bigger trunk space and longer range that a gasoline powered vehicle offers?
Harrywr2 -15-,
""Peak Oil" is an economic term. It is the price at which substitute goods become attractive."
No. Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline.
The concept originated with M. King Hubbert, who, in 1956, accurately predicted that United States production of oil would peak between 1965 and 1970. Colin Campbell received his Ph.D. in 1957, so there is no way that he invented the concept of Peak Oil, although he is now very involved in promoting the idea.
Natural gas powered cars have the same problem as hydrogen powered cars, no distribution network for the fuel. That sort of thing takes decades to implement. It's much cheaper and faster to build gas to liquids plants and use the distribution network we have now. Of course that means that the low CO2 advantage of natural gas goes away. And that's not to mention the leakage rate of methane if the vehicle uses cryogenic storage.
Note that believing that oil production has peaked does not mean that I believe we will somehow run out of energy. The problem is the transition period, which is the point of Rupert Soames' speech. Will the infrastructure for whatever replaces oil be in place in time to prevent severe economic disruption? I'm not very optimistic about that.
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