Last week, following my comments on public opinion on climate change, a prominent climate scientist (who does not wish to participate in blog discussions) wrote to me to object to my claims, writing that:"Science debates can change science ... which can change public opinion ... which can change policy direction. "This is of course an invocation of what has been called the "linear model" of science in decision making. The views expressed by this scientist are widely shared and are in fact a point of agreement among competing factions in the climate debate, particularly as found in blog discussions.
The linear model is named as such because it posits that:
science ----> public opinion ----> policy direction
If the linear model were an accurate description of the world then it would be the case that when we are debating science we are actually debating issues that influence policy directions. Science would thus serve as a real proxy for political debate.
The problem with the linear model is that it does not accurately describe the real world relationship of science and policy in general, and certainly not with respect to climate change. As I have documented, US public opinion on climate change has been relatively stable (with ups and downs) over three different presidencies, four IPCC reports, various weather extremes like Katrina, and a vigorous effort by skeptics to cast doubt on the science and advocates for action to cast the science as settled. At this point the continued efforts to debate the politics via science simply serve to reinforce the extant nature of public opinion.
What efforts to wage climate politics through science actually do, rather than influencing political outcomes, is to increase the politicization of science. One result of this is a trend in public opinion across partisan lines indicating increasing numbers who believe that climate science has been exaggerated in political debate.
I discuss the linear model and its pathologies in some depth in The Honest Broker and public opinion on and the politicization of climate change in The Climate Fix.
5 comments:
Public opinion may not have changed all that much, but it is extremely shallow. Very few people in the US have a clue about the actual science. Their views are merely a reflection of the dominant media coverage.
Public opinion can be fickle and it certainly is never 'settled'. Especially when the question is one about which most people have nothing invested in their opinion.
The fact that the public considers climate change to be at the very bottom of its concerns demonstrates that the alarmists have not actually made their case.
The problem with the linear model is that if you believe in it, you have a tendency to slant the science because you believe it may influence public opinion.
And once the science becomes slanted then people have a natural mistrust. Ergo this model is not only incorrect but takes us all down a path that is bad for the public, bad for science, and bad for general truth-seeking.
"science ----> public opinion ----> policy direction"
Dentist - going to the dentist every 6 months is a good thing.
Public Opinion - going to the dentist every 6 months is a good thing but somewhat painful.
Dim Dentist - if we just showed people more evidence of the benefits of going to the dentist they would go more often
Bright Dentist - If I make it less painful to go to the dentist then people will go more often.
Dim Dentist - maybe if the government passed a law compelling people to go to the dentist they would go more often.
Bright Dentist - we live in a democracy, the people get to vote, they would just change the government and have the law repealed.
Hmmm....irt climate, I think the links go
climate promoters>>>>lobby opinion leaders>>>>>>chant climate mantra to public>>>>>>nurture true believers>>>>>>>lobby opinion/legislative leaders>>>>>put money into climate promoters>>>>>>>>lobby opinion leaders>>>>>>chant mantra to public>>>>>>etc. ad nauseum
Yes, I think that linear model is correct. can i now have my incandescent light bulbs back?
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