02 July 2010



  1. Hup Holland!
    There ya go Mr Pielke Jr, no statistics and/or models can predict this... :))

  2. Yes, we won! So, what are our chances now? With Brazil out: Holland - Argentina for a final?


  3. More interesting model-wise (and indeed world finance-wise) is that a new force has emerged to challenge the leadership of the four-strong 'quant' model group. JP Morgan is now neck-and-neck with longtime leader Tomato Production 2008.

    All four of these extremely sophisticated models expect Spain to win tomorrow and have blown their chances of scoring any points on the other quarter-final, so the placings - JPM and TP2008 joint first, UBS third and Goldman Sachs fourth - can't change until the semi-finals.

    What are the odds from them on? If I were you, I'd bet on TP2008. Its model is the newest and therefore the cleverest of the four. (Plus its projected overall winner is still in the competition.)

    If both Portugal and Germany win tomorrow, bet on Werner Krauss.

  4. A great victory for Netherlands. The last time they beat Brazil in the World Cup was 1974, when the Dutch were arguably the best team in the world. They lost the final in 1974 to the home team (Germany) and in 1978 to the home team (Argentina), but they were probably better than either team on a neutral field. So the victory over Brazil augurs quite well for them.

    The best player in the tournament, so far, and in my opinion by a country mile, is Diego Forlan of Uraguay. Somebody on the bar stool next to me said that Uraguay plays like Argentina, except smaller, shorter, and slower. That is true. But Forlan's exceptional skill set has carried them to the semi-final, where they will lose to Netherlands. Watch Forlan, if you haven't already: almost every touch he makes creates something. The ball does better things when he is near it....

  5. Luckily for world finance, the TP2008 quant model is, once initiated, entirely independent of the invincible ignorance of its creator. (See my last comment.) That is its beauty and its power. You'll see. This time next year, all of world finance will be driven by predictive models based on vegetable historicals, with tomatoes to the fore.