09 February 2010

Climate Science in the Media

Climate Science in the Media

A Discussion Document from the Science Media Centre

Background

The SMC was set up to help scientists become more effective at engaging with the media when controversial science stories hit the headlines. For 8 years now we have been on the front line between scientists and the media, working on stories like GM, MMR, human-animal embryos, swine flu, Nuttgate etc. As a result we have built up a considerable body of expertise about the best ways for scientists to approach the media at times of frenzy.

Now we find ourselves in the middle of ‘Climate Gate’ (described in the Guardian, complete with new logo, as 'Climate Wars') with a seemingly unstoppable tide of negative stories about climate science, and more and more people talking in epic terms about the collapse of trust in scientists. Along with many of you, the SMC has already worked tirelessly on this issue and in many ways the scientific community are to be praised for getting out there and engaging with the public and the media at such a difficult time. But there are also causes of concern with some scientists openly lashing out at the media while others retreat very firmly back into their labs and in the opposite direction to any media interviews.

We have decided to put together a discussion document for scientists and science press officers encapsulating some of the lessons we believe science has learned from previous media frenzies. This is by no means a definitive guide to approaching the media and is not intended to be prescriptive in any way. We don't have all the answers and suspect that some of you will disagree with some of the advice but our role at the SMC is to encourage and support scientists to engage with the media when their issue hits the headlines. As the MMR debate may finally be resolved after 12 years, we felt it would be good to stimulate debate about how science – and the media – can get this one right.

Points for Discussion

1. We need to start hearing more from the silent majority of climate researchers.

One of the problems with the original GM debate in 1998 was that most of the country's best plant scientists remained silent. Because of that, some well known scientists, and not the experts on GM – people like Susan Greenfield and Robert Winston – ended up stepping up to defend the integrity of science and fight what they saw as an anti-science backlash. But the problem with that was that the British public never got to hear about the science from people who knew most about GM and who were best placed to describe the potential risks as well as the benefits. We have learned from the recent debate about human animal embryos that the debate benefits from seeing and hearing from those scientists and clinicians at the forefront of the research. Climate researchers are more likely than general science spokespeople to fully understand (and therefore more ably communicate) the uncertainties, nuances and complexities of this area of science. We need to identify and champion more media spokespeople from the silent majority of climate researchers and make them available to the media. The SMC is planning a special Introduction to the News Media for climate research next month and we will send details soon.

2. Never leave a vacuum.

Surely one of the most important lessons learned from debates about GM and MMR is that where the best scientists say no to an interview their seat will simply be taken by a campaigner or a politician or a commentator with less of an appreciation of the science and evidence than them. Many scientists are not enjoying the polarised framing of the climate debate and are reluctant to agree to interviews which could include questions about UEA emails, errors in IPCC reports, Pachauri’s position etc. But climate researchers saying no to these interviews simply means that policy makers and the public will hear from someone with less expertise. At a time when many members of the public are engaged in thinking about and debating climate change it is absolutely essential that climate scientists do not turn away from their responsibility to ensure that the debate is informed by accurate and evidence-based information. With good media training and support from science press officers, there are many ways that scientists can seize the agenda and use interviews to communicate key facts about science and the way science works.

3. The benefits of being open about the uncertainties, gaps in knowledge and disagreements outweigh the risks.

We know that some scientists are feeling rather bruised by being accused of failing to address uncertainties and I am fully aware that it's usually the media, not scientists, who edit out the nuances and uncertainties. However, we have also spoken to scientists who conceded that they felt that admitting to uncertainties was dangerous when so-called ‘sceptics’ are waiting to pounce. Gavin Schmidt, a leading climate modeller, last week admitted in an interview with Nature News that the “insane” culture of suspicion that climate researchers are working in is “drowning our ability to soberly communicate gaps in our science”. But failing to be open about these gaps has only played into the sceptics' hands and undermined public trust. It is a similar picture with areas of disagreement. As Research Fortnight points out, there have been fundamental debates between scientists behind closed doors on how to present the science, with some believing that political decisions should be made on a consensus based on the best available evidence, and others who argue that this is a dangerous course because science is ever-changing.

We believe scientists need to use this current crisis to reflect on communicating uncertainty. They need to recognise that being more proactive and honest about the areas that are less certain or subject of disagreement would result in better-informed coverage and more public trust. If journalists think that there are disagreements or gaps in knowledge that are being hidden they are much more likely to start hunting around trying to 'expose' them than they are if all the information is on display. We need journalists and the public to better understand that disagreement is a normal, healthy feature of science and that unlike politicians scientists do not have to be 'on message' or arrive at an agreed line!

4. Scientists are entitled to stick the science.

A recent emergency press briefing held by the SMC in the middle of the media frenzy surrounding ‘Climate Gate’ was remarkable in the sense that several journalists were demanding that the scientists – who were extremely robust about the strength of the science– go beyond the science to make statements about public perception, the UEA emails, and Pachauri's position at the IPCC. In short, some journalists were accusing the scientists of ‘only’ talking about the science. While scientists are of course entitled to go beyond their science and call for action or comment on wider issues, we believe that scientists are also entitled to stick to their science. One journalist told the scientists that their robust defence of the science and the scientific process was not enough to 'win' the battle for public support; but the primary responsibility of scientists and indeed the SMC is not to 'win' public debates. We believe the primary responsibility of scientists – and it is a huge responsibility in itself - is to ensure that public debates on contentious issues are informed by accurate, evidence-based science.

5. We need to seize on the renewed interest in climate science to ensure that the science is heard.

The SMC's philosophy is that when science hits the headlines it’s always an opportunity to get science and the scientific process over to a mass audience when they are most interested. The fact that all eyes are currently on climate science represents a significant opportunity to engage the media and the public. That means we should all be considering running more press briefings on different aspects of the current row, making sure that researchers are ready to do media work on every new study, and offering more opinion pieces, joint statements etc.

6. It's science that is sceptical and self correcting - and we should shout about that!

The SMC has always argued that it should be scientists, and not the critics of science, who identify the risks of new technologies, correct past mistakes and draw attention to studies that challenge the mainstream view. As people have pointed out, 'sceptic' was once a term that scientists were proud to adopt and we think they should reclaim the mantle. Bob Watson, CSA to Defra, told Research Fortnight that he himself had been a sceptic in the past but as he said "the basis of my scepticism was evidence not ideology'. It's also worth pointing out that it was glaciologists that identified the error in the IPCC report on glaciers. The SMC believes that if there is any gold-standard research that casts any doubts on previous studies or revises projections for warming downwards or even shows some of the benefits of a warmer climate, these should be embraced and publicised with equal vigour to the rest of the evidence.

7. Welcome journalistic scrutiny

The SMC’s philosophy - “We will get the media to ‘do’ science better when scientists ‘do’ the media better” - was a reaction against a culture of complaint in the scientific community who too often shouted only from the sidelines without actually getting involved. Of course scientists have the right to debate the media coverage of climate science and we have spent 8 years complaining about the lazy and unhelpful practice of balancing every climate researcher with a sceptic – a practice that now happens a lot less because press officers and journalists have challenged it with editors. But condemning the media for scrutinising science will do little to restore public or media trust in science. The role of journalism is to comfort the afflicted and afflict the comfortable and to shine a light on power. While it may not feel like it this week, climate change is now an establishment view backed by all political parties and most business leaders; scientists have no more right than politicians or footballers to demand protection from journalistic scrutiny. We can demand accuracy and balance and more attention to uncertainty and nuance, but we should not demand immunity from investigation. We are supremely confident that climate science in the UK has nothing to fear from more scrutiny. The evidence will out and where the evidence is incomplete we all need to know – that’s what journalism is for.

8. Scientists should welcome public debate

The SMC also feels that the scientific community should be welcoming and embracing debate on climate change. Many commentators have pointed out that the debate about GM that raged in 1998 was about much more than the science. As Professor Mike Hulme recently pointed out, the debate over climate change is also about much more than science. Many of us have noted that even those most firmly backing mainstream science react badly to attempts by some to say that the science is in and the debate is closed. One of the features that characterised the public debate over human/animal hybrid embryos was the stem cell researchers’ tireless enthusiasm for debating with their critics, including pro-life MPs and Catholic bishops. Some will say that climate change is too important to be treated as just another science controversy. But the exact same argument can be used the other way round: that, whatever the outcome of the science and whichever way you look at the evidence, this issue is just so important that it must be openly debated at all turns.

9. Hang on in there - it will calm down

Media frenzies always come to an end. The media coverage of animal research, MMR and GM crops is now completely different and much better quality than that in the midst of those furore. While the current feeding frenzy is uncomfortable for climate scientists, if they can step up to the plate now when the public and policy makers are most engaged they are likely to be rewarded with a more mature and better informed debate in the future.

Also worth remembering that polling experts contend that people formulate their opinions about such issues over the longer terms as Michael Simmonds, Managing Director of Populous told the BBC last week: "People tend to make judgements over time based on a whole range of different sources."

10. Debate the media coverage

While scientists debate science ad nauseam they are less engaged in the debate about how to communicate and convey that science to the media and the public. There are some encouraging signs that the current debate is focussing the minds of leading climate scientists on the need to engage the media and the public in more sophisticated ways and all the speakers at the SMC briefing conceded that they need to get much better at communicating uncertainty, risk, probability and complexity. With the help of social scientists and media academics, we have learned many lessons from studying the media debates over issues like GM and MMR. Indeed, the scientific community felt so strongly that the media work around human animal embryos was a shining example of how to get it right that we got together and published a pamphlet (see “When animal research hits the headlines”). We hope to further stimulate this debate by running brainstorms on the media coverage with science press officers and journalists and also running a special Introduction to the Media session aimed at those researchers who currently do not engage with the media.

The purpose of this document is to provoke discussion among scientists and science communicators about media coverage of climate science. It is a public document and you are welcome to share it with your colleagues. As always, we would love to hear your thoughts on any of the points raised.

Science Media Centre, February 2010

smc@sciencemediacentre.org

17 comments:

ibjc said...

"We need to start hearing more from the silent majority of climate researchers".

Unless they have a different viewpoint?

Just asking.

Jeff said...

11. Recognize that a great many of the people you are writing off as "nonscientists" are in fact former physicists, chemists, geologists, engineers, etc. who simply do not work in the fields they have trained in for assorted reasons. Many of them are exceptionally sharp, predisposed to engage on scientific issues that impact their lives, and not easily conned by obvious bullshit. Play it straight and honest and they won't eat you for lunch.

bernie said...

Jeff:
Well said.

TSL said...

If I may, 11a:
There are many scientists and engineers who, while not working in climate science, are quite familiar with simulations of complex systems. These people understand concepts like independent vs. dependent variables, upscaling and downscaling, parameterization, the difference between a sensitivity analysis and a projection, and the fact that the plural of simulation is not data.

jgdes said...

I wish people would get off this meme that it's about means of communication. It's actually about honesty and integrity. An innocuous scientific study with many caveats is converted into something else entirely by a University press office and made even worse by headline-hungry editors. The IPCC deliberately ignore even the consensus position, never mind alternate views, in order to push an agenda. Peer-review has become a members only club. All this used to be called lying by omission. Now it's about poor communication? Pull the other one.

The primary lessons about CRUgate are that a) the scientific method was being actively perverted, and b) nobody complained publicly about the lack of rigour in the science except those totally outwith the system, c) skeptics were proven right to be skeptical despite all the insults they had to and still have to take.

How did it happen? Because there is zero accountability or risk for gross exaggeration of what the science actually says combined with opprobrium and funding problems for anyone who disagrees. We need proper referees and proper 3rd party review for policy-important studies. Getting more scientists to talk to the press is not a priority so much as getting more of them to be more honest and critical with each others work - so that outsiders don't have to teach them the meaning of the scientific method.

Mixing this up with GM foods and the MMR scare is wrong. They are different.

MMR was a combination of media frenzy and government intransigence. Wakefield himself was circumspect in his statements but a dissenting scientist should never be browbeaten like that; everyone is entitled to dissent because sometimes that dissenting voice is correct. What was the problem with allowing worried parents to buy a separate measles jab? Answer: nothing - It was sheer bloody-mindedness by politicians. The only reason that government scientists were disbelieved by the public wasn't the press or even Wakefield, it was memories of government scientist's utter incompetence over the BSE and foot-and-mouth fiascos. And that has no small bearing on public skepticism about climate change too. Scientists always seem to be either ridiculously optimistic or ridiculously pessimistic; few seem to ever occupy the middle ground where the truth usually lies.

The GM question is not so much about the science any more as the monopolism displayed by Monsanto. Apparently farmers in India can't buy any other type of seed now, the Monsanto seed costs 4 time as much and they still need to buy the same amount of pesticide anyway. By no small coincidence the number of farming suicides thanks to overwhelming debt has rocketed. Who's learning from this debacle? The farmers sure are, but not the policy makers!

Malcolm said...

CARGO CULT SCIENCE by Richard Feynman

http://www.lhup.edu/~DSIMANEK/cargocul.htm

Maybe 36 years old but still very relevant.

TSL said...

Even older than Feynman's talk, and also relevant:

http://www.cs.princeton.edu/~ken/Langmuir/langmuir.htm

eric144 said...

My view is that employees sign a contract of employment, that basically says that they do what they are told by their employer. They do not have individual points of view.

Until such times that all employees are free to speak their mind, I would prefer not to hear the opinions of any employee because they will overwhelmingly support the establishment view. The James Hansen story is very instructive, as it happens.


Employees are free to write blogs, but there are cases of even very low level employees in the UK being sacked or disciplined for writing blogs.

Scientists have their own ways of communicating with each other, some of which are publicly viewable. That is sufficient for me.

copner said...

Re: 6, "self-correcting".

self-correcting does not mean the same in the science context and is the non-science and political context.

In both cases self-correcting means mistakes get found and fixed.

But in the science context, it means that mistakes get found and fixed eventually. It doesn't mean that mistakes get corrected quickly. It doesn't mean that mistakes can not take years to get spotted. It doesn't even mean that the majority of scientists in a field can be wrong about something for years and years. It just means, that given enough time, **eventually** mistakes are spotted and fixed.

(anybody with even a modest science education can name perhaps a dozen famous examples of a widely accepted theory being self-corrected in the history of physics, chemistry, biology, geology, cosmology, etc. )

However: In the non-science and political context, self-correcting tends to be interpreted to mean mistakes are spotted quickly, more or less immediately, and by implication, any mistakes have therefore already been spotted and resolved by the majority.

The problem is that "self-correcting" point can be used as a means of precluding argument, and actually hinder the true self-correction process.

Only yesterday, there was a newspaper article arguing exactly that. The argument was that because science is self-correcting, all fundamental aspects of the IPCC reports must **already** be correct (despite one or two minor errors) and it was therefore unnecessary to waste time on further investigation, research, or discussion.

Harrywr2 said...

"6. It's science that is sceptical and self correcting - and we should shout about that!"


It normally takes an enormous amount of time for scientific hypothesis to be accepted as a scientific law and then to be accepted as a scientific law.

Einsteins 'theory of relativity' has yet to move to the status of 'Newtons Laws of Motion'.

Mark B. said...

Another in a long line of "it's just a P.R. problem" claims. While all the suggestions are perfectly reasonable, the only time the heart of the matter is touched is when they recommend admitting uncertainty. So suggestion that climate scientists actually follow the fundamental principle of ALL scientific communication: make your methods available and your work transparent.

And to the commenter above: For the love of God, PLEASE stop posting a link to that Feynman article. It shows up in these threads constantly - it may be new to you, but not to the rest of us.

Sharon F. said...

I agree with jgdes. I also agree about the definitions of self-correcting... you just have to consider the costs of teaching students the wrong thing (did anyone else have to memorize the operon theory?) versus the costs of sending a nation or the world off in a wrong direction or in the right direction at an unnecessary rate of speed.

I used to say "if you expect me to change management actions based on your paper, they will require a formal QA/QC process as to their production and validation of the models. It just seems the more important information is, the more careful we should be.

guardian174 said...

The other major issue is the natural desire to preserve one's career. Not to appear to be rocking the boat, or falling overboard into denial (a river in Africa, as we all know).

The fact that an employee says he/she believes in the most sacred tenets of his subject area, doesn't mean it is actually the case. For example, the fundamental conclusions of the IPCC that carbon trading is the only way to save the human race.

On that subject

If you take away the army of those whose living depends on AGW, and the extreme environmental fringe, very few believe in it.

A BBC poll, which surveyed 1,000 people, revealed that 25% of adults did not believe in global warming ? a rise of 8% since a similar poll in November ? and the percentage of those who thought climate change was a reality fell to 75%. Of those who believed, one in three felt climate change had been exaggerated. Only 26% of people thought climate change was "established as largely man made".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/07/climate-change-science-public-trust

AMac said...

Irony can be unintentional.

--- begin quote ---

3. The benefits of being open about the uncertainties, gaps in knowledge and disagreements outweigh the risks.

Gavin Schmidt, a leading climate modeller, last week admitted in an interview with Nature News that the “insane” culture of suspicion that climate researchers are working in is “drowning our ability to soberly communicate gaps in our science”. But failing to be open about these gaps has only played into the sceptics' hands and undermined public trust. It is a similar picture with areas of disagreement.

--- end quote ---

Gavin at RealClimate.org, on Mann's upside-down use of the Tiljander proxies in his paleoclimate reconstruction (PNAS, 2008): "This issue was discussed ad nausem at Stoat... No correction needed."

For context, an abridged and annotated version of the first Stoat thread, here.

Frontiers of Faith and Science said...

Honesy and integrity have been clearly lacking on the side of the AGW promoters.
Does this group speak to that at all clearly?

Frontiers of Faith and Science said...

Roger, I hit the 'post' button a bit too early.
Here is what I was trying to say:
All of this could be summed rather quickly by reminding people that telling the truth, fully and in context, is the only policy that actually works.
AGW promoters, scientist, politician and journalist, NGO's, etc., have failed to do this in large enough numbers to have created the crisis climate science is facing.
You have documented very well the corruption of the IPCC. It was a deliberate choice on their part to meet their goal of selling a climate crisis.
The UEA e-mails show the same.
Mann's hockeystick, Briffa's tree scam, etc. are all aspects of the same failure.
This is not something new. 'Spinning' (lying) is as old as humanity. Scientists are not, have not been and never will be, immune from this.
Climate scientists must engage in a process of separating the hype of AGW form the science of climate.
The response of the government and academia and the media is not encouraging in hopes of that.

jgdes said...

They'll need media training in weasel-speak:

statistically significant = not obvious
not inconsistent with = nothing like
we found no evidence of = we didn't look for
out of context = accidentally truthful
novel statistical technique = trick
not dependent on the sign = upside down
cooling masking the warming = no warming
positive feedback = fudge factor
parameterizations = 30 fudge factors
aerosol cooling = arbitrary wiggle matcher
doesn't affect the conclusion = we'll fiddle something else
error correction = adjustment to match our model
evidence = our interpretation
robust = equally wrong
reputable scientist = one of us
confidence limits = reality distortion zone
independent = same data, same method, same team
peer reviewed = not even looked at

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