15 June 2009

Sea Level Rise Constrained?

Nature Geoscience has a new review paper out on sea level rise. Based on a review of the literature, it concludes that global average sea level rise is unlikely to exceed one meter by 2100:
As the present warming trend is expected to continue, global mean sea level will continue to rise. Here we review recent insights into past sea-level changes on decadal to millennial timescales and how they may help constrain future changes. We find that most studies constrain global mean sea-level rise to less than one metre over the twenty-first century, but departures from this global mean could reach several decimetres in many areas.
A search of Google News for the lead author's name -- Glenn Milne -- shows no news stories on the article.


  1. As a fast-changing subject, the publication date of the studies reviewed is important. If you have access to the bilbio for the review, maybe you could tell us the cutoff date.

    As to the lack of press coverage, they need a press release. If the release misrepresented the study to say either "no sea level rise" or "10 meters sea level rise", they would get plenty of coverage.

  2. Interesting. Thanks, Roger.

    Even guys like Pat Michaels and Chip Knappenberger, who are currently writing on this topic, appear to have missed this paper. They should start reading your blog more often!