I gave the keynote lecture earlier today at the CUAHSI 3rd Biennial Colloquium on Hydrologic Science and Engineering. I promised the audience I'd follow up on my blog with references to papers et.c that duscuuss further some the claims I made in the talk. The CUAHSI folks tell me that the talk will be on YouTube shortly.
Here are a few items of follow up:
- Red River floods of 1997, a case study in the (mis)use of forecasts: Pielke, Jr., R. A. (1999), Who Decides? Forecasts and responsibilities in the 1997 Red River floods. Applied Behavioral Science Review 7 (2) 83-101
- Wivenhoe Dam lessons:
- van den Honert, R.C.; McAneney, J. The 2011 Brisbane Floods: Causes, Impacts and Implications. Water 2011, 3, 1149-1173.
- Large Balls
- Australian investigation
- Emergence timescales: Crompton, RP, RA Pielke and KJ McAneney (2011), Emergence timescales for detection of anthropogenic climate change in US tropical cyclone loss data. Environ. Res. Lett. 6 (1).
- Hot hands and guaranteed winners
- Lack of skill (and impossibility of skill) in hurricane landfall forecasts: Pielke, RA (2009), United States hurricane landfalls and damages: Can one- to five-year predictions beat climatology?. Environ. Hazards 8 (3) 187-200.
- RMS 2006-2010 hurricane damage prediction and the expert elicitors as monkeys
- RMS on the IPCC "mystery graph" and for the full story of the IPCC mistakes on disasters see Chapters 6 and 7 of The Climate Fix.
- The US intense "hurricane drought"
- Our 2000 book on Prediction and the concluding chapter in PDF: Decision Making and the Future of Nature: Understanding and Using Predictions