08 February 2012

Research on Climate Change and Conflict

The journal Peace Research has just published a special issue on climate change and conflict. The introductory essay, by Nils Petter Gleditsch, says this:
On the whole, however, it seems fair to say that so far there is not yet much evidence for climate change as an important driver of conflict.
Gleditsch also offers a gentle suggestion to the IPCC:
The IPCC is currently working on its Fifth Assessment Report, scheduled for release in 2013. For the first time, this report will have a chapter on the consequences of climate change for human security, including armed conflict (IPCC, no date). We hope that the studies reported here will contribute to a balanced assessment by the IPCC, built on the best peer-reviewed evidence.
That such a statement has to be made is a statement itself.


  1. Some serious people are beginning to point out that most social science and science studies are flawed. Statistics gets used, misused, abused and mutilated.

    Would anyone really argue that studies such as those which seek to predict the future for the purpose of advancing propaganda deserve special scrutiny before their "findings" are given any weight?

  2. I guess this argument linking climate and civil wars will follow the fate of disappearing Himalayan glaciers and other "voodoo science".

  3. .

    The world has warmed since the 1940's but the death toll due to war has dropped.