// API callback
showrecentcomments({"version":"1.0","encoding":"UTF-8","feed":{"xmlns":"http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom","xmlns$openSearch":"http://a9.com/-/spec/opensearchrss/1.0/","xmlns$gd":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005","id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.comments"},"updated":{"$t":"2023-06-03T07:18:09.714-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog"},"link":[{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#feed","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/feeds\/comments\/default"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/comments\/default?alt=json-in-script"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/"},{"rel":"hub","href":"http://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/"},{"rel":"next","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/comments\/default?alt=json-in-script\u0026start-index=26\u0026max-results=25"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Roger Pielke, Jr."},"uri":{"$t":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/04711007512915460627"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"31","src":"\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEiU23Q5vzm9Y4qg4sabaWhMjj3m2JKNx-VrxNAzKatiAqIDGSvJWgUbDaMNAohXYivLVFm-alFfk0J9-Su59YNuRHtILsq22VRwm8-Ooblk0uEzl-JbSumEcH6GGlKR4g\/s118\/*"}}],"generator":{"version":"7.00","uri":"http://www.blogger.com","$t":"Blogger"},"openSearch$totalResults":{"$t":"22850"},"openSearch$startIndex":{"$t":"1"},"openSearch$itemsPerPage":{"$t":"25"},"entry":[{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-4965513857676014541"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-28T09:44:04.736-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-28T09:44:04.736-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Thanks for all those years, Roger! More often than..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Thanks for all those years, Roger! More often than not, your blog was in the center of the climate storm. I remember the predecessor of the current blog, Prometheus, pretty well; you were introducing both new arguments and a new way of arguing. Your posts changed the course of the climate debate, and they were a permanent source of inspiration. I guess we owe you a lot! And yes, I have heard that there is a life outside of the blogosphere: enjoy!"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/5538906025737314660\/comments\/default\/4965513857676014541"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/5538906025737314660\/comments\/default\/4965513857676014541"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/thanks-for-reading.html?showComment=1432827844736#c4965513857676014541","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Werner Krauss"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/15094636819952421339"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/thanks-for-reading.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-5538906025737314660","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/5538906025737314660","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-30650302"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Thu May 28, 09:44:00 AM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-5536626250075646428"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-23T12:32:33.670-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-23T12:32:33.670-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Oh no!  We will miss you Dr. Pielke!  You are a mo..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Oh no!  We will miss you Dr. Pielke!  You are a moderate voice of reason in a sea of insanity."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/5538906025737314660\/comments\/default\/5536626250075646428"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/5538906025737314660\/comments\/default\/5536626250075646428"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/thanks-for-reading.html?showComment=1432405953670#c5536626250075646428","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Texan-African"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/09521600217828474078"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/thanks-for-reading.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-5538906025737314660","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/5538906025737314660","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-565262198"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Sat May 23, 12:32:00 PM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-1442116471674459984"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-14T15:33:26.158-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-14T15:33:26.158-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Party leader satisfaction ratings seem to be a bet..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Party leader satisfaction ratings seem to be a better predictor of UK election winners than voting intentions - at least in a two-horse race. I have a new post about that. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttps:\/\/mygardenpond.wordpress.com\/2015\/05\/14\/party-leader-satisfaction\/ \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ERuth Dixon"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8561561830301413177\/comments\/default\/1442116471674459984"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8561561830301413177\/comments\/default\/1442116471674459984"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/evaluating-uk-election-predictions.html?showComment=1431639206158#c1442116471674459984","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Anonymous"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/blank.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/evaluating-uk-election-predictions.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-8561561830301413177","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/8561561830301413177","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-1856871637"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Thu May 14, 03:33:00 PM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-3110485407520529496"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-12T06:12:58.716-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-12T06:12:58.716-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"\u0026quot;Thank you Nicola Sturgeon\nFor putting the To..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u0026quot;Thank you Nicola Sturgeon\u003Cbr \/\u003EFor putting the Tories in power,\u003Cbr \/\u003EYou terrified the English\u003Cbr \/\u003EWhen it came to the hour,\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe balance of power\u003Cbr \/\u003EYou said you would hold,\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe English said “No way!”\u003Cbr \/\u003EAnd gave Labour a cold.....\u0026quot;\u003Cbr \/\u003ERead more: http:\/\/wp.me\/p3KQlH-Ks "},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8561561830301413177\/comments\/default\/3110485407520529496"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8561561830301413177\/comments\/default\/3110485407520529496"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/evaluating-uk-election-predictions.html?showComment=1431432778716#c3110485407520529496","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Anonymous"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/blank.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/evaluating-uk-election-predictions.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-8561561830301413177","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/8561561830301413177","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-1856871637"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Tue May 12, 06:12:00 AM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-2742798645046233935"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-12T02:49:20.065-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-12T02:49:20.065-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Late to this, and I note the subsequent thread reg..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Late to this, and I note the subsequent thread regarding assessment of the forecasts.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003ECertainly the most interesting election of my lifetime - the Lib Dem vote share overall was always likely to collapse, but with the possibility that they might hold on to a disproportionate number of seats (in the end this hardly happened, with several high profile MPs losing especially in London and Scotland). \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt was obvious for months that Scotland was going to return a large proportion of SNP MPs, although I doubt anyone really expected them to win 56 of 59 of the seats they contested - the Conservatives have had little support in Scotland for 20+ years, while Labour has problems both at the regional level (Scottish Labour having been subject to an internal power struggle) and because the Westminster party has drifted away from its working class roots.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe wildcards were UKIP and to a lesser extent the Greens, especially in the latter case how many disaffected LDs they would attract. As it turned out, the support for the Greens was spread relatively evenly and thinly (other than in the one seat they previously held), with them often getting between about 1000 and 2000 votes per constituency (so up to about 5%) - while a few of these are probably former Lib Dems (as a lefty protest vote), it looks like the LDs previous voters largely went back to the two main parties. As such, the Green vote was rarely a factor.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EUKIP is much more interesting. While portrayed as a right wing party, their anti-EU and anti-immigration policies seem to have been nearly as attractive to the \u0026#39;working class\u0026#39; Labour vote as to the Tory right. Only one seat to show for their relatively large vote %, and that being one of the two seats they held prior to last Thursday, but they came second in a lot of Constituencies, and certainly influenced the result in some, although not always in the way anticipated. Interesting to see the comment above suggesting up to 30 seats for UKIP - while this was always unlikely, they were anticipating 5 to 10, and with their vote share do seem to be under-represented. It shows that there is value for smaller parties in trying to concentrate the vote in certain areas rather than looking for mass appeal across the board.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EAs for the two main parties, ultimately the choice came down to a Conservative Party not particularly inspiringly led but speaking to the aspirations of middle England or a Labour Party led by a rather odd geeky guy and whose main messages seemed to be to punish the wealthy and to support the poor. In the end I think a lot of voting was on the \u0026#39;better the devil you know\u0026#39; premise.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe conclusions:\u003Cbr \/\u003E1 - the opinion polls were shockingly wrong, although the factors above may in part explain why.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E2 - Former Lib Dem votes seem to have split fairly evenly between Con and Lab. It seems that little attention was being paid to this division, and how it could allow the Conservatives to gain an absolute majority by claiming about half of the Lib Dems lost seats.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E3 - UKIP\u0026#39;s vote did not just erode the Tory right, but had an appeal to some \u0026#39;old\u0026#39; Labour and some elements of the protest vote.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003E4 - Other than for the \u0026#39;rump\u0026#39; of each major party, support is relatively weak in the sense that voters are either being undecided or willing to change their minds relatively frequently. It\u0026#39;s not like the days of the Thatcher Conservatives, where she was really popular amongst her supporters but hugely unpopular with her opponents. Cameron and Milliband just don\u0026#39;t inspire the same depth of feeling."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/2742798645046233935"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/2742798645046233935"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html?showComment=1431420560065#c2742798645046233935","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Ian Blanchard"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/10947843702597184219"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7982801431791249843","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/7982801431791249843","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-451460734"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Tue May 12, 02:49:00 AM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-6906134766661073801"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-09T04:08:08.140-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-09T04:08:08.140-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"The storyline of a neck-to-neck race seems to have..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The storyline of a neck-to-neck race seems to have been the most appealing to all parties concerned, and to the pollsters. It even caught on in the betting market which seems to indicate that the punters took the pollsters\u0026#39; lore as common knowledge.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe result is a shocking failure of a tool which seemed to have been honed to perfection over the years, and decades. This is of similar proportion as the pollster debacle in the 1936 US election (Landon v Roosevelt) which, after the fact, was dubbed the \u0026#39;election that changed polling\u0026#39;.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOf course, predicting voting behaviour is as much an art as it is a science. Constructing the appropriate sample and question technique is the result of craft and experience, and the term \u0026#39;skill\u0026#39; reflects this fact.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EStill, there is a puzzle. Polling as a tool is dependent on communities of craft skill, but you would expect that these communities learn over time and do not forget or abandon crucial skills. Maybe this is true in other fields, but not when it comes to voting, because the pollsters are stealth passionates who enagage in motivated reasoning."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8561561830301413177\/comments\/default\/6906134766661073801"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8561561830301413177\/comments\/default\/6906134766661073801"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/evaluating-uk-election-predictions.html?showComment=1431166088140#c6906134766661073801","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"@ReinerGrundmann"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/12759452975366986236"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/evaluating-uk-election-predictions.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-8561561830301413177","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/8561561830301413177","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-1720276267"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Sat May 09, 04:08:00 AM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-8944147306846126661"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-08T19:06:47.336-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-08T19:06:47.336-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"I have seen a consistent pattern that big leads de..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"I have seen a consistent pattern that big leads degrade as elections near across countries. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMy guess is that people being polled don\u0026#39;t want a shoo-in, because competition is the basis of democracy. So if the race is one sided people will answer in order to make it seem less so -- because that encourages more voting and less complacency in politicians.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIf a side is leading big about eight weeks out, it will generally win big even though pundits will say that the polls are narrowing. Who actually thinks that many people change their minds in those eight weeks?"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8561561830301413177\/comments\/default\/8944147306846126661"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8561561830301413177\/comments\/default\/8944147306846126661"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/evaluating-uk-election-predictions.html?showComment=1431133607336#c8944147306846126661","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Mark"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/14049701479076034749"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/evaluating-uk-election-predictions.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-8561561830301413177","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/8561561830301413177","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-158152600"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Fri May 08, 07:06:00 PM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-3020217098575223462"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-08T13:34:38.889-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-08T13:34:38.889-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Great post summarising the prediction disaster. In..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Great post summarising the prediction disaster. In hindsight, there were some clues that Lab forecasts perhaps should have been revised down: e.g. They were performing worse in phone polls http:\/\/www.comres.co.uk\/look-past-polls-of-polls-the-conservatives-have-been-leading-all-year\/ and qualitative expertise on the ground such as http:\/\/www.newstatesman.com\/politics\/2015\/05\/are-labour-losing \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThe point about the broader horserace-isation of politics is a very good one. Interestingly, Peter Kellner (YouGov head) said early on that he\u0026#39;d found the campaign dispiriting because parties has been saying what they thought the public wanted rather than fighting for what they believed in. (Of course, that didn\u0026#39;t stop YouGov raking in large amounts of money as the leading pollster over the election period)"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8561561830301413177\/comments\/default\/3020217098575223462"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8561561830301413177\/comments\/default\/3020217098575223462"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/evaluating-uk-election-predictions.html?showComment=1431113678889#c3020217098575223462","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Anonymous"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/blank.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/evaluating-uk-election-predictions.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-8561561830301413177","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/8561561830301413177","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-1856871637"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Fri May 08, 01:34:00 PM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-3366898303973653701"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-08T11:50:27.318-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-08T11:50:27.318-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Very interesting that asking people who they thoug..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Very interesting that asking people who they thought would win could may be more effective than asking them how they voted. Also that one accurate poll was held back because it was out of line (Groupthink! Consensus!) \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIf I may be allowed to plug my own blog post on the subject, \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttps:\/\/ipccreport.wordpress.com\/2015\/05\/08\/another-triumph-of-expert-predictions\/\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EI note that not only did the expert academics do badly, they did worse than the bookies and the newspapers. "},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8561561830301413177\/comments\/default\/3366898303973653701"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8561561830301413177\/comments\/default\/3366898303973653701"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/evaluating-uk-election-predictions.html?showComment=1431107427318#c3366898303973653701","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Paul Matthews"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/13612822196780702827"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/evaluating-uk-election-predictions.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-8561561830301413177","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/8561561830301413177","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-1439902149"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Fri May 08, 11:50:00 AM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-8239517893348513016"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-08T11:20:56.464-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-08T11:20:56.464-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"A timely reminder of the power of groupthink and w..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"A timely reminder of the power of groupthink and wishful thinking."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8561561830301413177\/comments\/default\/8239517893348513016"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8561561830301413177\/comments\/default\/8239517893348513016"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/evaluating-uk-election-predictions.html?showComment=1431105656464#c8239517893348513016","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"@ReinerGrundmann"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/12759452975366986236"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/evaluating-uk-election-predictions.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-8561561830301413177","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/8561561830301413177","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-1720276267"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Fri May 08, 11:20:00 AM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-1576087853066480213"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-08T10:03:53.806-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-08T10:03:53.806-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Roger, I look forward to your evaluation of the, e..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Roger, I look forward to your evaluation of the, err, skill, of the, err, expert predictions that you listed on your blog back in March!\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EMy take is here:\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttps:\/\/ipccreport.wordpress.com\/2015\/05\/08\/another-triumph-of-expert-predictions\/"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/1576087853066480213"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/1576087853066480213"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html?showComment=1431101033806#c1576087853066480213","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Paul Matthews"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/13612822196780702827"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7982801431791249843","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/7982801431791249843","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-1439902149"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Fri May 08, 10:03:00 AM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-5388660014718747216"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-08T07:43:51.836-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-08T07:43:51.836-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"The biggest losers last night in the UK were obvio..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The biggest losers last night in the UK were obviously the polls and pundits. Why is the state of polling in the UK so shoddy? How odd."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/5388660014718747216"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/5388660014718747216"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html?showComment=1431092631836#c5388660014718747216","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Brian"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/11876289451474409389"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"25","height":"32","src":"\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEh-dRJGKIlAocj3fIhLWEwk8jzEVsSRQSMBZCESrkSnyH8hUSzyFi0G_t8YXOsq1PaumMMbX6dX88fEML3Lzyetw4hrf3AgTUyJ_eaKm-CDudYLF6ExZNEPXqT_QjkhQw\/s220\/Brian%28edited%29.jpg"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7982801431791249843","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/7982801431791249843","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-525472198"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Fri May 08, 07:43:00 AM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-6395351203774999632"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-08T07:16:29.909-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-08T07:16:29.909-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Missed it by \u0026#39;that\u0026#39; much. https:\/\/www.yout..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Missed it by \u0026#39;that\u0026#39; much. https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=oPwrodxghrw"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/6395351203774999632"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/6395351203774999632"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html?showComment=1431090989909#c6395351203774999632","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"stan"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/05644362748723516825"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7982801431791249843","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/7982801431791249843","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-1012267349"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Fri May 08, 07:16:00 AM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-5491109427746573027"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-08T05:20:21.755-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-08T05:20:21.755-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"There will be a lot of angst about why the advance..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"There will be a lot of angst about why the advance polls got it so wrong (exit poll did quite well). I think part of it was they failed to account properly for the effects of minor parties, and partly for enthusiasm among the base. A lot of potential Labour voters seem to have peeled off to the Greens, Lib Dems, and even UKIP; but the Tories came home. "},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/5491109427746573027"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/5491109427746573027"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html?showComment=1431084021755#c5491109427746573027","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Gerard Harbison"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/06182552979528991484"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"28","src":"\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhVLoEkex9MuB7sxygpDPJdAIe73KTj29f0ufPt75Hbz_yJRBAY_i2njUCZaXYuYYxs7sH0-u1D1fwl5QV4mGWYzgx9-lXJajIkn6s1NFUci6h1RK19s584MPXvzcUyyCI\/s129\/gerry_vector_1.0.jpg"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7982801431791249843","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/7982801431791249843","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-526116570"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Fri May 08, 05:20:00 AM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-4711846300526985239"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-08T04:07:06.743-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-08T04:07:06.743-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"I was going to predcit 290 Tory seats, but the web..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"I was going to predcit 290 Tory seats, but the website wouldn\u0026#39;t let me. For which i\u0026#39;m grateful now :-)\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EOddly, I think this wafer thin Tory absolute majority might keep the UK in the EU. There are plenty of Tory Europhiles, and I\u0026#39;m not sure even a three line whip will get all of them to vote for a referendum. And (if I\u0026#39;m not mistaken) all the minor parties are opposed, except UKIP, who have a right to complain they were cheated by the electoral system. \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EIt\u0026#39;s not clear to me David Cameron can deliver on his promise. "},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/4711846300526985239"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/4711846300526985239"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html?showComment=1431079626743#c4711846300526985239","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Gerard Harbison"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/06182552979528991484"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"32","height":"28","src":"\/\/blogger.googleusercontent.com\/img\/b\/R29vZ2xl\/AVvXsEhVLoEkex9MuB7sxygpDPJdAIe73KTj29f0ufPt75Hbz_yJRBAY_i2njUCZaXYuYYxs7sH0-u1D1fwl5QV4mGWYzgx9-lXJajIkn6s1NFUci6h1RK19s584MPXvzcUyyCI\/s129\/gerry_vector_1.0.jpg"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7982801431791249843","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/7982801431791249843","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-526116570"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Fri May 08, 04:07:00 AM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-8414627939638868841"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-07T03:18:11.698-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-07T03:18:11.698-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"My guess is that the Conservatives will do a bit b..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"My guess is that the Conservatives will do a bit better than the polls are predicting, so the current coalition will cling on, supported by about 8 DUP and maybe 3-4 UKIPpers. "},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/8414627939638868841"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/8414627939638868841"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html?showComment=1430990291698#c8414627939638868841","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Paul Matthews"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/13612822196780702827"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7982801431791249843","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/7982801431791249843","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-1439902149"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Thu May 07, 03:18:00 AM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7253782333883438103"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-06T02:11:06.305-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-06T02:11:06.305-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"I cannot imagine Labour having the guts of calling..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"I cannot imagine Labour having the guts of calling for a vote of no confidence. They have shied away from the prospect of a Labour\/SNP government. And Clegg will only consider a coalition with Labour if it is strongest party."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/7253782333883438103"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/7253782333883438103"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html?showComment=1430899866305#c7253782333883438103","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"@ReinerGrundmann"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/12759452975366986236"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7982801431791249843","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/7982801431791249843","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-1720276267"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Wed May 06, 02:11:00 AM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7236903204466247099"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-05T15:24:13.844-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-05T15:24:13.844-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"There is also the euro-skeptic UKIP eroding the co..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"There is also the euro-skeptic UKIP eroding the conservatives on the right. This is the most uncertain, but may get as much as 31 seats."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/7236903204466247099"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/7236903204466247099"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html?showComment=1430861053844#c7236903204466247099","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Anonymous"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/blank.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7982801431791249843","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/7982801431791249843","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-1856871637"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Tue May 05, 03:24:00 PM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-4152541901883409825"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-05T12:58:35.146-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-05T12:58:35.146-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Another scenario to consider here would be the SNP..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Another scenario to consider here would be the SNP going the way of Sinn Fein, boycotting Westminster, and ending any hand-wringing over a hung Parliament. Sure there are oodles of reasons why that probably will not happen, but, then, none of the current scenarios are within the bounds of likelihood."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/4152541901883409825"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/4152541901883409825"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html?showComment=1430852315146#c4152541901883409825","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Profane"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/05131628865279071396"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7982801431791249843","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/7982801431791249843","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-681397474"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Tue May 05, 12:58:00 PM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-560212533246984934"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-05T12:14:57.159-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-05T12:14:57.159-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"If polls are to be believed, the only stable gover..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"If polls are to be believed, the only stable government is a non-interference pact between Tories and SNP."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/560212533246984934"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/560212533246984934"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html?showComment=1430849697159#c560212533246984934","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"richardtol"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/14239680555557587153"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7982801431791249843","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/7982801431791249843","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-2064527934"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Tue May 05, 12:14:00 PM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-5280029316410811031"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-05T12:12:03.926-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-05T12:12:03.926-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"I think you\u0026#39;ve more or less covered it. On Bet..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"I think you\u0026#39;ve more or less covered it. On Betfair Cameron and Miliband are tied at ~50\/50, with Cameron having improved in last ten days from 40\/60, that\u0026#39;s for next Prime Minister.  The DUP iirc can be expected to support a Conservative government, they have 8 Northern Irish seats.  I think \u0026#39;constitutional crisis\u0026#39; may overdo it, and your \u0026#39;may end up in courts\u0026#39;, while linked to a Telegraph story, sounds VERY un-British. We don\u0026#39;t end up in court on this stuff, but I agree the fixed term stuff needs a bit of precedent building before we know how it will work in this type of situation.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EYou\u0026#39;ll enjoy this video from Sky News.  The silent one is the Welsh leader.  https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=KyISprZphtM\u0026amp;feature=youtu.be\u003Cbr \/\u003E"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/5280029316410811031"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7982801431791249843\/comments\/default\/5280029316410811031"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html?showComment=1430849523926#c5280029316410811031","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Roddy"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/14104358721079710535"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/handicapping-uk-general-election.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7982801431791249843","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/7982801431791249843","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-497105443"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Tue May 05, 12:12:00 PM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-6426138781618147331"},"published":{"$t":"2015-05-04T13:55:05.646-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-05-04T13:55:05.646-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"Charlie Hebdo has learned their lesson. They won\u0026#..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"Charlie Hebdo has learned their lesson. They won\u0026#39;t be drawing any more Muhammad cartoons.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003Ehttp:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-32520563"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7781846747617227469\/comments\/default\/6426138781618147331"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/7781846747617227469\/comments\/default\/6426138781618147331"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/focus-of-attention-in-10-years-of.html?showComment=1430769305646#c6426138781618147331","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Blackbeard"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/12403363194251456123"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/05\/focus-of-attention-in-10-years-of.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7781846747617227469","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/7781846747617227469","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-1531504138"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Mon May 04, 01:55:00 PM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-5749556432349355599"},"published":{"$t":"2015-04-29T07:08:08.964-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-04-29T07:08:08.964-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"So a Labour(red)\/SNP(yellow) government and Scotti..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"So a Labour(red)\/SNP(yellow) government and Scottish independence!"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/341377425592838732\/comments\/default\/5749556432349355599"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/341377425592838732\/comments\/default\/5749556432349355599"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/04\/the-sweet-fa-prediction-model-and-uk.html?showComment=1430312888964#c5749556432349355599","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"MarkN"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/06170618262031833829"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/04\/the-sweet-fa-prediction-model-and-uk.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-341377425592838732","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/341377425592838732","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-34789318"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Wed Apr 29, 07:08:00 AM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-8518324820035212005"},"published":{"$t":"2015-04-21T18:11:45.148-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-04-21T18:11:45.148-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"The discussion of political myths provokes a curio..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"The discussion of political myths provokes a curiosity to reevaluate historical and contemporary myths with an objective perspective.  I think it invites a reassessment of standards and practices that are denigrated and accepted with casual concern to create political or social leverage for sustaining or establishing individuals and groups.   The consequences of political and social myths are certainly not limited in scope and are often underestimated or misrepresented in -- a self-sustaining manner -- private exchanges on principle, and in public exchanges as a prerequisite. It is therefore not a surprise that based on overwhelming historical evidence, that people would be skeptical of political, expert, advocate etc. motives to frame an issue.  \u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EWith this in mind, is it possible to suggest an objective perspective that is not subject to the theory of [social] relativity?  Observation, hindsight, and foresight are limited perspectives biased by the theory of relativity.  Does it matter?  Or can we treat everything as a \u0026quot;wicked problem\u0026quot; with variably wicked solutions with an approving minority or majority approval?  This is related to the ostensibly wicked problem of defining the scientific domain and separating it from the other logical domains: philosophy, faith, and fantasy.\u003Cbr \/\u003E\u003Cbr \/\u003EThat said, this is likely a generational problem with generational solutions, and will be revisited with regularity as long as there are competing interests in a finite-domain."},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8237718445670768805\/comments\/default\/8518324820035212005"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/8237718445670768805\/comments\/default\/8518324820035212005"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/04\/pacita-keynote-technology-assessment-as.html?showComment=1429661505148#c8518324820035212005","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"n.n"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/04252447117532342957"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2015\/04\/pacita-keynote-technology-assessment-as.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-8237718445670768805","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/8237718445670768805","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-660579747"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Tue Apr 21, 06:11:00 PM MDT"}]},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-7738428518438115590"},"published":{"$t":"2015-04-20T13:13:51.240-06:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2015-04-20T13:13:51.240-06:00"},"title":{"type":"text","$t":"I am lost, Isn\u0026#39;t Sardonic an island in the Med..."},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"I am lost, Isn\u0026#39;t Sardonic an island in the Med?  ;\u0026gt;{"},"link":[{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/32291840198790261\/comments\/default\/7738428518438115590"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http:\/\/www.blogger.com\/feeds\/4584146295727293357\/32291840198790261\/comments\/default\/7738428518438115590"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2013\/02\/interesting-timing-to-be-removed-from.html?showComment=1429557231240#c7738428518438115590","title":""}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"Unknown"},"uri":{"$t":"https:\/\/www.blogger.com\/profile\/11959144808598276606"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$image":{"rel":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005#thumbnail","width":"16","height":"16","src":"https:\/\/img1.blogblog.com\/img\/b16-rounded.gif"}}],"thr$in-reply-to":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","href":"http:\/\/rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com\/2013\/02\/interesting-timing-to-be-removed-from.html","ref":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4584146295727293357.post-32291840198790261","source":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/4584146295727293357/posts/default/32291840198790261","type":"text/html"},"gd$extendedProperty":[{"name":"blogger.itemClass","value":"pid-205541422"},{"name":"blogger.displayTime","value":"Mon Apr 20, 01:13:00 PM MDT"}]}]}});